So many “expert” predictions lately ’bout how all these wild world events are going to play out.
I guess SOMEONE will have to be right.
Reminds me of a concept I’ve been thinking about for years — the Seer-Sucker Theory.
First proposed by Professor J. Scott Armstrong, it states: “No matter how much evidence exists that seers do not exist, suckers will pay for the existence of seers.”
This explains SO much about human buying behavior.
We desperately want to believe that experts can predict the future.
Even when overwhelming evidence shows they’re barely better than random chance.
Political experts, investment gurus, economic forecasters, tech prophets… their track records are DISMAL when evaluated objectively.
Psychologist Philip Tetlock‘s research found that political experts were only slightly better than chance at predicting world events — about as accurate as “dart-throwing monkeys.”
Yet we keep listening to them.
Know why?
Because making decisions is exhausting.
Your dog brain — the emotional, impulsive part I talk about in I Need That — HATES uncertainty and cognitive strain. It craves authority figures who will tell it what to do, removing the energy-intensive burden of decision-making.
As Armstrong notes, we consult “experts” for two key reasons:
- To shift blame in case of failure (“Well, the expert recommended it…”)
- To replace uncomfortable uncertainty with authoritative certainty (even if it’s false)
This has big, never-ending implications for product makers.
Your customers see YOU as a “seer” in your category.
They’re seeking your expertise not just because they need information, but because decision-making is psychologically taxing. They want YOU to shoulder some of that cognitive burden.
Recognizing this creates an ethical responsibility: Are you providing genuine expertise based on solid evidence, or just confident-sounding predictions because they’re expected?
Product Payoff: Patagonia tapped into this dynamic by shifting from selling outdoor gear to providing detailed environmental impact information for each product. Instead of just claiming to be eco-friendly “seers,” they gave customers transparent, verifiable data. This approach helped the brand grow to over $1 billion in annual revenue while maintaining fiercely loyal customers who trust them PRECISELY because they admit what they don’t know!
Action for today: Skim through your marketing, support materials and sales presentations. Where are YOU positioning yourself as a “seer” with unfounded predictions? Replace these with more honest, evidence-based statements that acknowledge the limits of certainty. Counter-intuitively, this builds more trust than falsely confident predictions!
Want to discuss how to ethically position your expertise without falling into the seer-sucker trap? Tap that always reliable reply arrow and let’s talk about building legit authority. Or reach out to my team of product positioning consultants at Graphos Product.