A few years ago, my wife bought me a pair of vivid blue On running shoes.
I’d never really heard of the brand at the time, except for the beige Ons I’d seen HER wearing.
I’m on my second pair now, and have worn the heck out of them. They’re the most comfortable running shoes I’ve ever had. (Though I could do without the wide groove that runs the full length of the sole — it picks up rocks, sticks and goose poop as if that’s what it was designed for.)
Watching this Swiss running shoe brand’s trajectory has been interesting. With just 2% of the massive global athletic footwear market, you might not have noticed them yet. But that’s about to change.
On’s growth story breaks every rule in the traditional playbook.
They’ve captured that 2% of the global athletic footwear market through what I call the “quiet flip” — when customers shift from curiosity to need without any artificial push.
No splashy Super Bowl ads. No celebrity mega-endorsements. No “revolutionary technology” marketing hype.
Just really comfortable shoes that runners love.
This is what happens when your tank brain recognizes genuine value before your dog brain gets excited about marketing.
The early numbers are mind-boggling: $2.5 billion in sales for 2024, up 30% from last year. Wall Street predicts $10 billion by 2033 — a milestone that Lululemon has yet to hit, and Puma hasn’t reached in its 77-year history!
But here’s what’s even more interesting: On’s leadership is intentionally SLOWING DOWN.
They’re choosing to dial back from 50% annual growth to a more sustainable 26% through 2026.
When’s the last time you heard a hot brand voluntarily tap the brakes?
Now, this is tank brain at the corporate level. They’ve seen the graveyard of brands like Reebok and Under Armour that grew too fast and lost their core appeal.
Last spring, On’s main US warehouse couldn’t handle the order volume. (I couldn’t get a pair to save my life.)
Instead of pushing harder, they stepped back, automated thoughtfully, and focused on fixing the foundation.
So obvious, yet so hard to do.
Action for today: Look at your growth trajectory. Are you chasing expansion at the expense of what made customers need your product in the first place? Sometimes slower growth means stronger roots.
Want to discuss sustainable growth strategies? Let’s talk about building lasting product value — hit reply.
Laurier
Product Payoff: When Allbirds chased rapid growth through retail expansion and product line explosion, they lost focus on their core sustainable wool runners. Allbirds stock dropped 90% post-IPO. Meanwhile, On has stuck to its lane, improved its core products, and built trust through consistency. Focus (as well as a dose of slow and steady) might win the race.